F . : What Can We Learn from Amma about Physical Processes and Models ?
نویسنده
چکیده
An important motivation for AMMA is the major regional scale and multi-decadal West African drought. It started at the end of the 1960’s, and was particularly severe in the seventies and eighties (Figure 1). It is indeed considered as the strongest observed event of rainfall variability at these time and space scales, and the actual mechanisms accounting for this drought are yet to be precisely determined (e.g.; Hulme 2001). In fact, modelling the West African weather and climate with current GCMs appear to be particularly difficult (Panareda et al. 2008, Hourdin et al. 2008). It is therefore not unexpected that climatic projections diverge widely over this region; Cook and Vizi (2006) for instance show how different ocean-coupled general circulation models (GCMs) predict either much drier or much wetter conditions over the Sahel for the twenty-first century.
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